Fall 2022 Predictions

Week 1 (8/30)

Week 2 (9/7)

Week 3 (9/21)

Week 4 (9/28)

Week 5 (10/5)

Week 6 (10/12)

Week 7 (10/19)

Week 8 (10/26)

Week 9 (11/8)

Leaderboard

Note: Updated December 22, 2022.¹

Rank	Name	Correct Calls	Brier Score
1	Class Average	30/39	0.1824
2	Jeremy Lee	27/39	0.1887
3	David Barrero	26/39	0.1959
4	Joe Ornstein	25/39	0.2124
5	Nicholas Chao	24/39	0.2166
6	Adam Szczupak	28/39	0.2170
7	Arianna Ycaza	24/39	0.2319
8	Patrick Egan	26/39	0.2332
9	Hannah Jones	22/39	0.2418
10	Audrey Vaughan	25/39	0.2452
11	Andrew Decker	22/39	0.2477
12	Joe Kennedy	22/39	0.2477
13	Noah Herndon	23/39	0.2490
14	Meredith Stevens	19/39	0.2903
15	Olivia West	16/39	0.3081
16	Edward Cox	20/39	0.3169
17	Mac Kinnebrew	17/39	0.3172
18	Charlie Estabrook	14/39	0.3776
19	Ian Driggers	14/39	0.4218

Calibration Plots

Footnotes

1. I had incorrectly resolved the Netanyahu question as “yes” following the November 1 Israeli elections, but he did not secure a coalition agreement to become Prime Minister by the November 30 deadline.